Mortgage Market Update — August Jobs Slip, Refinancing Window Widens
The Labor Market is Wobbling.
August delivered a shocker—just 22,000 new jobs added, vastly missing the 75,000 forecast, and marking the weakest employment gain this year. Plus, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%, the highest since 2021.
Sources:
https://www.ft.com/content/d85a58c1-40af-48e5-a7ec-e80e3410ae05
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2025/sep/05/ons-crisis-retail-sales-error-uk-house-prices-record-high-us-jobs-report-business-live-news-updates
Fed Rate Cuts Now Seem All But Guaranteed.
Markets are now pricing in aggressive action from the Fed—think 50-basis-point cut at the September meeting, a sharp turn from earlier projections.
Source:
https://www.reuters.com/business/stanchart-revises-fed-cut-expectations-50-bps-sept-after-weak-us-jobs-data-2025-09-08
Mortgage Rates Are Trending Down.
With the Fed pivot looming, 30-year fixed rates have dropped into the low-6% range, and refinance rates are near 2025 lows. CNBC reports one of the largest single-day drops in over a year.
https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/todays-mortgage-rates-september-7-2025-sharp-drop-in-rates-leads-to-a-surge-in-refinancing
https://nationalmortgageprofessional.com/news/homeowners-waiting-refinance-could-be-ready-set-go-time
https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/mortgage-interest-rates-now-september-4-2025
Borrowers: This Is Your Moment.
If you're locked in above 7%, refinancing now could save you substantial money—hundreds off each month. And if you're shopping for a home, rate relief means more affordability, more options, more flexibility.